Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in South America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Peru
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Bolivia
  • Ecuador
  • Colombia
  • Paraguay
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Venezuela

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $952,439$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,009,133.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,009,133.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,685$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,530.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(35,530.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,735$ on 2020-11-26

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,399,431$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,684,628.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 205.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,684,628.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,941$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,596.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 201.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45,596.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $134,828$ on 2020-11-26

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,204,220$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,011,486.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 147.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,011,486.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $171,460$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{168,208.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(168,208.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $475,873$ on 2020-11-26

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $545,662$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{498,911.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 117.0)}}\) (asimptote \(498,911.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,235$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,985.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(13,985.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,180$ on 2020-11-26

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,390$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,669.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.8)}}\) (asimptote \(143,669.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,939$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,233.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,233.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,731$ on 2020-11-26

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $188,138$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216,910.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 166.9)}}\) (asimptote \(216,910.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,316$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,204.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 166.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,204.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,813$ on 2020-11-26

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,280,487$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,293,998.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 176.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,293,998.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,019$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,869.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(34,869.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,715$ on 2020-11-26

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $79,517$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,935.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 200.8)}}\) (asimptote \(83,935.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,704$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,760.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 195.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,760.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,303$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 76%
Venezuela recovered 65%
Argentina recovered 23%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,215$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,664.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 172.0)}}\) (asimptote \(101,664.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $884$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{918.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 164.3)}}\) (asimptote \(918.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,259$ on 2020-11-26